Research on short term power system load forecasting method based on improved VMD and LSTM

Xiaoyu Shao; Jingyu Fu; Tao Zhou; Xueting Zhao; Bao Wang; Jianxiong Jia; Min Yang; Yutong Ye

doi:10.1117/12.3024688

13 May 2024 Research on short term power system load forecasting method based on improved VMD and LSTM

Xiaoyu Shao, Jingyu Fu, Tao Zhou, Xueting Zhao, Bao Wang, Jianxiong Jia, Min Yang, Yutong Ye

Proceedings Volume 13159, Eighth International Conference on Energy System, Electricity, and Power (ESEP 2023); 131598C (2024) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3024688
Event: Eighth International Conference on Energy System, Electricity and Power (ESEP 2023), 2023, Wuhan, China

Abstract

Aiming at the characteristics of nonlinear and non-stationary of power system load data, and the low accuracy of shortterm power system load forecasting, a combined short-term power system load forecasting model based on improved VMD and LSTM methods is proposed. Firstly, the historical load data is preprocessed. Secondly, for the problem that the artificial selection of core parameters in VMD has a poor decomposition effect, the improved whale optimization algorithm is used to search for the VMD parameter combination to obtain the optimal modal component, so as to reduce the complexity of the load data sample set. Then, an IWOA-VMD-LSTM prediction model is constructed to predict the modal components after decomposition, as well as festival characteristics and meteorological characteristics. The predicted results of different components are superimposed to obtain the final load forecasting value. Finally, through simulation experiments, it is verified that the forecasting effect of the IWOA-VMD-LSTM model is better than other forecasting models, and it shows good performance in short-term power system load forecasting.

(2024) Published by SPIE. Downloading of the abstract is permitted for personal use only.

Citation Download Citation

Xiaoyu Shao, Jingyu Fu, Tao Zhou, Xueting Zhao, Bao Wang, Jianxiong Jia, Min Yang, and Yutong Ye "Research on short term power system load forecasting method based on improved VMD and LSTM", Proc. SPIE 13159, Eighth International Conference on Energy System, Electricity, and Power (ESEP 2023), 131598C (13 May 2024); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.3024688

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KEYWORDS

Data modeling

Mathematical optimization

Modal decomposition

Education and training

Statistical modeling

Artificial neural networks

Complex systems

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