Prof. Feodor M. Pen'kov Profile

Prof. Feodor M. Pen'kov

at Al-Farabi Kazakh National Univ

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Proceedings Article | 4 May 2021 Paper

Mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a retarded differential equation

V. Derbov, S. Vinitsky, A. Gusev, F. Pen'kov, P. Krassovitskiy, G. Chuluunbaatar

Proceedings Volume 11847, 1184709 (2021) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2589136

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A mathematical model of COVID-19 pandemic based on a two-parameter nonlinear first-order ordinary differential equation with retarded time argument is proposed. The model uses two parameters: the time of possible dissemination of infection by an individual virus carrier and the probability of contamination of a healthy population member in a contact with an infected one per unit time. The parameters can be given functions of time, which is particularly important in describing multi-peak pandemic. The model is applicable to any community (country, city, etc.) and provides an optimal balance between the adequate description of a pandemic inherent in the known SIR model and the relative simplicity for practical estimates. Examples of the model application are in qualitative agreement with the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic.

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