Study on medium and long-term maximum power load and grid supply load curve forecasting

Haifeng Zheng; Qing Liu; Chenglong Zhang; Jinhui Duan; Shanshan Wu; Kaiyue Qu

doi:10.1117/12.2692853

24 October 2023 Study on medium and long-term maximum power load and grid supply load curve forecasting

Haifeng Zheng, Qing Liu, Chenglong Zhang, Jinhui Duan, Shanshan Wu, Kaiyue Qu

Proceedings Volume 12804, Second International Conference on Sustainable Technology and Management (ICSTM 2023); 1280419 (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2692853
Event: 2nd International Conference on Sustainable Technology and Management (ICSTM2023), 2023, Dongguan, China

Abstract

Under the background of "two steps", "double carbon", new power system, electricity marketization reform, etc. in the new era, the influencing factors of China's power load growth are more complex, and the trend judgment is more difficult. For this reason, this paper considers such factors as economy, temperature, electrification, distributed power generation, electricity price, etc., builds a medium and long-term maximum load and grid supply load curve prediction model, and carries out empirical application in 2030. The following conclusions are drawn: From 2021 to 2030, the maximum load of the whole society in China will increase by 5.5% annually, of which the proportion of air conditioning load will increase; Under the influence of industrial structure adjustment and distributed photovoltaic output, the daily peak valley difference of the grid supply load curve in the state grid business area will continue to rise.

Citation Download Citation

Haifeng Zheng, Qing Liu, Chenglong Zhang, Jinhui Duan, Shanshan Wu, and Kaiyue Qu "Study on medium and long-term maximum power load and grid supply load curve forecasting", Proc. SPIE 12804, Second International Conference on Sustainable Technology and Management (ICSTM 2023), 1280419 (24 October 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2692853

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