Traffic flow characteristics is one of the important factors affecting the passage capacity of the waterway, for the Jinzhou port waterway to the port ship traffic flow increase and the development trend of large ships, combined with the waterway, berths, anchorage, and natural conditions and other factors, the use of Anylogic software on the passage capacity of the main channel of the Jinzhou port and the level of service and other simulation analyses. The simulation results show that: when the traffic flow increases to 1.3 times of the current one, the increase of the proportion of large ships has a greater impact on the service level of the port, and it is necessary to increase the berths of large ships or improve the efficiency of berth operation to improve the passage capacity of the waterway.
According to marine traffic safety statistics, ship collision accidents are one of the most important marine traffic safety accidents. In order to study the occurrence mechanism of ship collision accidents, based on Bayesian network method, network nodes are determined from three aspects: human factors, ship factors and environmental factors. The research data selected the investigation reports of 90 ship collision accidents on the official website of the China Maritime Safety Administration, of which 80 were used for model construction and 10 were used for model verification. The causes of ship collision accidents are analyzed, the causal chain of ship collision accidents is deduced, and countermeasures and suggestions are proposed to reduce the occurrence of accidents. The results show that the Bayesian network model can predict the probability of ship collision accidents based on ship navigation information, and the main causative chain of ship collision accidents is {insufficient estimation of collision risk → failure to maintain regular lookout→ insufficient estimation of incoming ship collision risk→ failure to take effective collision avoidance measures early→ human factors}.
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