In the face of increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision-making across various domains, there is a pressing need for frameworks that can adeptly navigate the multifaceted nature of such challenges. This paper introduces a novel, generalized framework designed to enhance multi-criteria decision-making under uncertain conditions. By integrating advanced data processing techniques with dynamic decision plan generation and adaptive mechanisms, the framework offers a robust solution to making informed decisions that are both flexible and responsive to changing information landscapes.
Central to the framework is its methodological rigor, which encompasses a comprehensive approach to data processing, including feature extraction and anomaly detection. This ensures decisions are grounded in accurate and up-to-date information. The framework employs a systematic algorithm for generating initial decision plans, which are then dynamically expanded to include co-requisite actions, ensuring comprehensive coverage of necessary interventions. A distinctive feature of the framework is its adaptive feedback mechanism, which refines decision plans based on the outcomes of implemented actions and new data, facilitating continuous improvement and relevance of decision strategies.
Furthermore, the paper details the application of advanced visualization techniques, such as Sankey diagrams, to elucidate the flow of information and the interdependencies between actions within the decision-making process. This not only enhances the transparency and interpretability of decisions but also fosters stakeholder engagement and consensus.
The versatility of the proposed framework is demonstrated through its applicability to a variety of domains, from emergency response planning to business strategy development, showcasing its potential to significantly improve decision-making practices. Through a meticulous examination of the framework's methodology and its application across diverse scenarios, this paper contributes to the advancement of decision science, oYering a scalable and adaptable solution to the challenges of multi-criteria decision-making under uncertainty.
KEYWORDS: Intelligence systems, Data processing, Data modeling, Knowledge management, Analytical research, Taxonomy, Systems modeling, Visualization, Reconnaissance, Control systems
The US Army has existing challenges associated with command and control and the execution of the operations processes, data processing, information management, and knowledge management. Continued limitations in the capability to combine and reason across explicit and tacit knowledge, due to the increased flow of data from multiple domains, is one shortfall associated with these challenges. We have created a framework to ingest various modalities of data enabling reasoning particularly for decision making tasks. The Enhanced Tactical Inferencing (ETI) framework is designed to have components that send and receive data from different information systems and sources to a reasoning module. The reasoning module is composed of sub-modules with different reasoning model profiles and functions. These sub-modules can work independently or interdependently. The output is a series of recommendations for decision making. One key model is for Uncertainty of Information (UoI). This model incorporates a series of rules and algorithms to associate uncertainty across the multiple data sources. The intent of the ETI framework is to provide recommendations to humans, intelligent systems, and combinations of both. This paper will present the details of the ETI framework, focusing on the UoI model, as well as potential refinements and applications.
The DEVCOM C5ISR (Command, Control, Computers, Communications, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) Center describes an ongoing focus to provide decision makers with mission command capabilities and platforms that aid the management of resources, seamlessly integrate across the six Warfighter functions, and complement the skills and experience of the Warfighter. The challenge is to provide “the right information to the right person at the right time”, regardless of the complexities of the operation. As an extension of our research in artificial reasoning, particularly for adaptive decision making, we have designed the Enhanced Tactical Inferencing (ETI) framework. The goal of ETI can be thought of “as a recommender to a recommender” where both explicit and implicit data is used to reason over information and generate decision point and course of actions recommendations. This paper will discuss the ETI framework and a use-case to explore potential recommendations for the current implementation and future enhancements.
The information that decision-makers use for command and control has uncertainty. Previous work has described different types of uncertainties, and the methods for using information to evaluate and rank alternative courses of action vary based on the type of uncertainty that occurs. Thus, when developing ways to generate automated decisions to support Soldier tactical planning, including multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) with different types (“modalities”) of uncertain information, no single method or algorithm will be optimal for all situations. Metareasoning is reasoning about reasoning, which is a type of self-adaptation, and it has been closely studied in AI and in logic due to its relevance to autonomous decision making; it is also of interest in cognitive science under the rubric of executive reasoning. A software agent or autonomous system can use metareasoning to monitor and control the procedures that it uses to process sensor information, evaluate potential courses of action, and plan its actions. This concept paper presents a metareasoning framework that can enhance artificial reasoning about uncertain information in the context of generating and ranking alternative courses of action. In this framework, the decision support agents will use rules to select the MCDM algorithms that are most appropriate for the type of information and the uncertainty modalities that are present. The rules may be curated by experts or generated from machine learning algorithms. We expect that using metareasoning will improve the ability to make complicated decisions with uncertain information.
With the exponential growth of technology, future military operations will be comprised of not just ground operations but a multi-domain battlespace. Paramount to mission success will be the reliance on intelligent adaptive computational agents and effective human-agent teaming. An agent teammate can assist the Soldier with tasks that may be seen as physically difficult, cognitively fatiguing, or high risk. However, successful teaming is compromised when an agent lacks the attributes that contribute to effective human-human collaboration, such as knowledge about team-members’ work preferences or capabilities. One way to provide agents with a sense of team-member preferences or capabilities is to quantitatively characterize such preferences as a function of the job the human intends to perform. To address this, we analyzed a modified survey from the Army Research Institute that is commonly used to identify work-abilities variables in military personnel based on the service member’s Military Occupational Specialty (MOS). Using machine learning techniques, statistical comparisons are made in order to quantitatively assess populationaveraged responses that Soldiers from various MOS codes provided on an Army Abilities questionnaire. Similarities and differences across groupings of MOS codes can provide a set of observations that might be parametrized into a computational agent’s framework. The goal of this work is to identify MOS code related parameters that might be incorporated into a computational agent’s framework in the future development of flexibly adaptive agents for Soldieragent teams.
The Human-Assisted Machine Information Exploitation (HAMIE) investigation utilizes large-scale online data
collection for developing models of information-based problem solving (IBPS) behavior in a simulated time-critical
operational environment. These types of environments are characteristic of intelligence workflow processes conducted
during human-geo-political unrest situations when the ability to make the best decision at the right time ensures strategic
overmatch. The project takes a systems approach to Human Information Interaction (HII) by harnessing the expertise of
crowds to model the interaction of the information consumer and the information required to solve a problem at different
levels of system restrictiveness and decisional guidance. The design variables derived from Decision Support Systems
(DSS) research represent the experimental conditions in this online single-player against-the-clock game where the
player, acting in the role of an intelligence analyst, is tasked with a Commander’s Critical Information Requirement
(CCIR) in an information overload scenario. The player performs a sequence of three information processing tasks
(annotation, relation identification, and link diagram formation) with the assistance of ‘HAMIE the robot’ who offers
varying levels of information understanding dependent on question complexity. We provide preliminary results from a
pilot study conducted with Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT) participants on the Volunteer Science scientific research
platform.
KEYWORDS: Algorithm development, Information fusion, Information theory, Content addressable memory, Current controlled current source, Analytical research, Military intelligence, Fuzzy logic
Modern military intelligence operations involves a deluge of information from a large number of sources. A data ranking
algorithm that enables the most valuable information to be reviewed first may improve timely and effective analysis.
This ranking is termed the value of information (VoI) and its calculation is a current area of research within the US
Army Research Laboratory (ARL). ARL has conducted an experiment to correlate the perceptions of subject matter
experts with the ARL VoI model and additionally to construct a cognitive model of the ranking process and the
amalgamation of supporting and conflicting information.
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